Reality vs. Technology Bubble You Decide

This was too entertaining to pass up so I just had to share it with you. Did you ever wonder about all that hype regarding a technology bubble? It seems that companies can create incredibly advanced technology yet, if the market perceives it in any sort of negative way, the product (regardless of how good it is or how many problems it solves) does not stand a chance to succeed. On the other side of the spectrum, you have large multi-national companies that produce less than adequate products (Microsoft Vista is a good example of this) but they manage to push the products into the market and then reap the rewards of success partly due to their talented marketing team’s efforts in self promoting by creating enough buzz to fool the market into believing that the product is a raving success. Amazing, yet scary – all at the same time. If you would like to know more about making your products a raving success, let us know your thoughts.

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YuAJHaXKgFk

Investment Evaluation Guidelines

I have been asked many times for a guideline when it comes to evaluating investments that we (or our Clients) make. People ask why we invested in Company X and not in Company Y, Why are we interested in industry A more than industry B etc.

Well, the simple truth is that we invest to win.

We tend to strip out a lot of soft factors and focus on results.
Did management deliver?
Can they do it again?
A lot of investment decision making is based on an understanding of industry trends, a trusted relationship with players that perform consistently above industry average and some form of defensible proprietary technology that is in demand because it solves a specific pain for a given market segment.

If a company has a specific target market segment in their crosshairs, we know that they have done their homework – when management states that they serve all industries, our alarm bells start ringing.

Following is my personal guideline for what really counts when considering investment in a startup or early stage company.

1) Market potential
2) The Team
3) Results
4) USP

Investment Process

• The success of investment in an early stage company depends on people and their ability to execute on a detailed business plan, therefore a lot of emphasis is placed on the team.
• The structure of the investment is vital and requires creative and often complex terms.
• Pricing is a key factor which needs to be carefully analyzed and negotiated.
• An interesting exit strategy is required in order to maximize a timely return.

Investment Selection

• Management Team: Experienced, in-depth knowledge of business, results oriented.
• Innovative Products/ Proprietory Technology: Highly differentiable, superior, specialized expertise, meets market needs.
• Business Plan/ Milestones: Well thought out business plan including milestones and contingency plans.
• Substantial Investment Position: Ability to obtain a substantial investment position, influence the selection of executive management and the strategic direction of the company.
• Valuation: Negotiate and obtain a fair pricing structure.

Initial Investment Valuation

• Underlying industry assumptions
• Realistic income statement over 3-5 years
• Competition
• Major criteria:
  • Technology value
  • Capital requirements
  • Market potential
  • Capital structure
  • Operational cash flow

Determination of NAV for privately held startup companies

• The original cost: An approximation of the fair market value at the time of the transaction.
• Write off: NAV calculation at cost, less any write-off deeemed necessary if subsequent performance fails to meet business plan forecast.
• Capital increase: NAV calculation in principle based on the capital increase price, less 10% to 29% discount if deemed necessary based on valuation factors.
• Write up: A write up is recognized when a significant event occurs such as increased profitability and achievement of milestones.

Curtains

Another year draws to a close and those that are not yet caught up in the turmoil of the subprime mortgage scandal or related corporate governance issues are probably focused on revenues and earnings objectives for the coming quarter. It never ceases to amaze me how many managers plead innocence publicly prior to knowing the facts and especially before claiming ignorance as they beg for forgiveness when the shit hits the fan because a few investors actually bothered to read between the lines as they picked up on sub-par decisions embedded for eternity on the balance sheet that the CEO signed off just weeks earlier. Am I referring to any company in particular? Perhaps… Do I have some sort of conflict with certain management teams that believe that they are above the law. Nay, nay for their day is nigh.

Yes, the shortfall in forecasted ROI has struck me too… How can the large, multi-national organizations that claim to spend so much effort getting things right make such ridiculous miscalculations with our money? We investors need to be vigilant and show our support for those doing the right thing. We investors need to reduce the pompousness at the board level and dig into the virtues of the truly great managers in order to pull out some sanity and coach our teams to do the right thing. Come clean say you?

Do the right thing and you are clean say I.

OK, you got me… perhaps that diatribe was a bit o’er the top but this is my official end of the year cautionary note – you ain’t seen nothing yet folks… the subprime beast shall rear its ugly head in the coming months (errr years) and we will all get a taste of how badly this calamity has affected the companies we invested in when the Q4 numbers are released. I have already looked into the crystal ball my friends… it ain’t pretty.

Anyone care to set up a pool and take bets on which giants of industry will be the next to tumble? How about a bank… If there were a pool, I’d place my money on UBS, Citigroup and Merrill Lynch not necessarily in that order.

Are you an Entrepreneur?

There is a lot of discussion these days about what defines a true entrepreneur and whether financial success is a pre-requisite of being an entrepreneur. Well, rather than argue moot points, let’s look at this from a practical, self evaluation perspective and see what is revealed. Below I compare and contrast being a freelancer with being an entrepreneur – I can’t wait to read your comments:

1. A freelancer is about the work. An entrepreneur is about the business…
2. A freelancer is a doer. A freelancer knows the tactics. An entrepreneur is a negotiator, a visionary and a thinker. An entrepreneur builds strategy and is constantly testing it.
3. A freelancer thinks the work is the business. An enterpreneur knows the business supports the work.
4. A freelancer is disinterested in ‘business controls and necessities’  – including thinking, budgets, invoices, business plans etc. which all get in the way of the ‘real’ work. An entrepreneur understands that without those ‘business controls and necessities’, it is simply not a business – it’s a job.
5. A freelancer might want to grow a Client base. An entrepreneur knows a business either grows or decays, and is constantly looking for ways to keep the growth managed and within reasonable risk parameters.
6. A freelancer lives in the now with an eye to long term Client relationships that might afford some security. An entreprenuer is looking to a vision of the business, now is a reflection of what the business will be.
7. A freelancer often doesn’t invest in his or her own equipment, training, or help. Many freelancers don’t delegate low-level skills or tasks that they don’t do well, because they think in terms of cost rather than investment and best use of time and resources. An entrepreneur knows that time is money, invests in future development and the business vision. An entrepreneur will pay for skills that he or she doesn’t have knowing that it is money well spent on quality and commitment.
8. A freelancer works from day to day. An entrepreneur has a business plan.