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The Next Big Thing

I spent a good amount of time reviewing business opportunities in China both locally and from abroad in 2006/7. The overwhelming conclusion I drew was that there is enormous potential in almost every sector of the economy driven by both foreign demand and local consumption capacity. Some companies were not able to produce enough product to satisfy local and regional demand let alone national demand in China yet, as I stepped into the reality that is the China of today, I discovered that I needed to shed my preconceived ideas that China’s production capacity exists to serve foreign interests. Sure, international markets are of great importance to the Chinese manufacturing sector but, the number of companies I reviewed that produced product for export only were few and far between.

China is a gigantic market just getting ready to shift into a consumer oriented phase. So, what exactly was I doing in China? Well, I figured that if I could identify sectors with the strongest production growth this would give me some insight into a future global trend that helps to answer my number one question… what is going to be the next big thing? and… how can I come up with a best guess estimate before the world wakes up and smells the coffee?

So here is what I did. I reviewed the following industries and their largest manufacturing partners in China.
Lighting: including LEDs and Displays
Optics: lenses of all shapes and sizes including x-ray… yes, x-ray lenses!
Sensors: the kind that are able to sense 5 particles per million for security applications fighting potential terrorist threats
Actuators: MEMS, NEMS MOEMS and NOEMS… don’t even ask plus medical testing devices
Storage: mechanical HDDs are on their way out or are they? I had a 100 GB solid state drive in my hand
Semiconductors: What is the biggest obstacle to progress on Moore’s law these days… I found out!
Energy: Well, with the rising price of fossil fuels alternative is the only way and improving methods of harvesting energy were on the list of the coolest inventions I saw
Biotech or as it’s known today… life science – DNA manipulation seems to be all the rage but what caught my attention was the ability of some companies to grow skin and…

Ok, enough! if I haven’t bored you by now you are probably wondering what this article is all about.
Well, I thought that if I were able to analyze what is being produced today and get an idea of what is coming down the pipe to satisfy the needs of tomorrow then I could gain some valuable insight into who will manufacture the next big hit for tomorrow… for several different industries and kind of hedge my bet. I got lucky, I discovered something even more valuable.

In my research I analyzed all major players in the above industry sectors and put together something like a roadmap for each. Although the time lines vary as each company plans to move its invention from the R&D phase into production and no one is able to forecast consumer or business demand for 5 years from today, there were some very interesting correlations. One was size. Products will be getting smaller – fact. Another was that products will be influenced more by market need (pull) rather than an inventor’s desire to create a new market (push). Lastly, ROI is playing a greater role in how long a particular invention is allowed to cook in the R&D labs before it is forced out the door to an awaiting and already expectant consumer market.

How about a summary of my thoughts? OK, take the current products manufactured today, do research on where they are headed, look into the components that enhance or add value to each of these products and see if there are a few companies that produce the next generation of these components – then limit the study to less than 10 industries where these components are bound to have major impact.

Do you see where I am headed with this now? If I can identify companies that produce something really small on a micro or even nano scale that improves today’s products and will be integral in moving tomorrow’s products forward, I will have successfully identified a winner in not one but several industries.

In my most recent estimation, there are not a lot of these players out there but they do exist and I am hunting them down one by one. Did I mention that I am already in discussions with one?

Yes, I believe that I have identified the first of several of these core component providers. If you have read my article this far, then you may want to contact me to learn more because information this hot, can not yet be published in an open forum. Alas, the search continues and a new project is born to narrow down the hunt for the next big thing.

Perception

Each of us tends to see things from a different perspective. I recently discovered that I too can see things very differently from what I expected and thanks to the animation below – now, so can you.

If your eyes follow the movement of the rotating pink dot… the dot will remain pink.

If you scroll down and stare at the plus sign in the center of the circle, you may notice that the moving dot changes to another color – for many people it becomes a moving green dot.

If you really concentrate on the plus sign you will probably notice that all the pink dots will disappear.

I can guarantee you that the pink dots are still there and that there is no green dot at all! I only created pink dots for this graphic!

This is positive proof that not everything we see actually exists.